Topic: Finding and Using Polling Data - For Free! Case Study: Taxes
By Meg Bostrom, Public Knowledge
There is no substitute for sponsoring your own opinion research tailored to the issues you care about, and conducted with the audiences that matter most to achieving your goals. However, we can learn quite a lot from the wealth of public opinion data that is available on the Internet for free or at a low cost. Some sites provide an analysis of the findings while others provide just the raw data. Either way, you'll want to think very carefully about what the findings mean for your issues, and not limit your thinking to just the perspectives provided.
In this e-zine you'll find descriptions of some of the best polling resources among the hundreds that are available on the Internet. Plus, we'll feature one website's public opinion findings on taxes to demonstrate the kind of information you can find, and how you might think about it.
A Sample of the Best Polling Resources on the Web
The Pew Research Center for the People and the Press
www.people-press.org
The Center is one of the most respected and valued resources for objective polling on a variety of topics. Sponsored by the Pew Charitable Trusts, the Center states its purpose as serving "as a forum for ideas on the media and public policy through public opinion research." For each survey the Center provides the complete survey instrument, report, commentary and full dataset. In addition, the Center features and provides links to other organization's public opinion polls. The site allows searching by topic, time period, or keyword. You can also submit your email address to be notified when new reports are released.
Public Agenda
www.publicagenda.org
Public Agenda has created a comprehensive website with opinion on most major public policies. Using carefully selected public opinion questions from a variety of polling organizations, Public Agenda walks the reader through highlights of the public's chief concerns, reactions to major proposals on an issue, the areas of consensus and division, and red flags, or warnings, in the survey data. In addition, Public Agenda conducts its own research, and makes the reports available to the public (free for the first 10 days, and then a small publication fee thereafter). Sign up for Public Agenda Alert to receive email notification of newly released research.
The Roper Center, University of Connecticut
www.ropercenter.uconn.edu
The Roper Center for Public Opinion Research at the University of Connecticut is a rich resource of polling information. The Center houses the largest library of public opinion in the world, and much of the public opinion data is available online (for a fee). In addition to the polling library, the site features several articles about public opinion from its magazine "Public Perspective."
The Gallup Organization
www.gallup.com
The Gallup Organization is one of the oldest, most known, and most respected public opinion organizations in the world. Many of Gallup's national surveys and long-term trends were available online until just recently, when the organization shifted its polling information to a paid subscription. However, there continues to be some free analysis of poll topics available on the site. For regular insights on a variety of public opinion trends, sign up for their free "Tuesday Briefing" email.
The Washington Post
www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/polls.htm
The Poll Vault section of washingtonpost.com includes complete survey results for research conducted by the Washington Post as well as the articles and analysis that resulted from the research. Topics include a wide range of subjects from election issues to family values. The database is searchable by topic, keyword and time period.
The Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation
www.kff.org
The Kaiser Family Foundation sponsors a great number of polls on health and social policy issues. Complete survey questions, findings, and reports are available to the public. You can also sign up to be notified via email when new poll results are posted to the site.
The Polling Report
www.pollingreport.com
At pollingreport.com, you'll find a sampling of survey questions and results on a wide range of topics, updated daily. You won't find the full surveys and reports, but after reviewing the highlights provided, you'll know where to look for more information on a survey that interests you. The Polling Report also provides access to additional polling information and a newsletter for a modest subscription fee.
Public Opinion Watch from The Century Foundation
www.tcf.org
The Century Foundation, formerly the 20th Century Fund, offers a weekly distillation of newly released public opinion data called, Public Opinion Watch. The analysis is witty, interesting, and also decidedly progressive, so be careful to review other resources to be exposed to a variety of perspectives and interpretations of public opinion on a topic.
Democracy Corps
www.democracycorps.com
If you enjoy the rough-and-tumble political debate, this site, founded by Democratic consultants James Carville, Stan Greenberg, and Bob Shrum, provides up-to-date political insights and advice.
Wirthlin WorldWide
www.wirthlin.com
Wirthlin Worldwide was founded by Republican pollster and strategist Richard Wirthlin. Its newsletter on current opinion, The Wirthlin Report, features in-depth analysis of a different topic in each issue. To make sure you do not miss any important insights, sign up to receive The Wirthlin Report via email.
The Odum Institute, University of North Carolina Chapel Hill
www.irss.unc.edu/data_archive/home.asp
The Institute is the repository for polls by Louis Harris and the archive for several state-based surveys, providing valuable information for state and local organizations. Its poll question database provides the ability to pinpoint poll questions and results on very specific topics.
Connect for Kids
http://www.connectforkids.org/info-url1559/info-url.htm
To keep abreast of public opinion data on children's issues, keep an eye on Connect for Kid's public opinion reference page. It provides links to polls covering topics directly relevant to children's advocates.
Now let's take a look at how you might work through one of these sites in search of data specific to an issue.
Example: Thinking Through Public Opinion on Taxes
Let's begin our search at pollingreport.com. The "Politics and Policy" section includes the topic "Issues Facing the Nation" which includes a section on "Problems and Priorities." Here you'll find a number of survey questions and results rating the country's most important problems. The most recent results are listed first.
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The Harris Poll. Latest: Oct. 15-21, 2002. N=1,010 adults nationwide. "What do you think are the two most important issues for the government to address?"
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The most recent question listed (as of the time of this writing) comes from the Harris Poll, fielded October 15-21, 2002, and based on telephone interviews with 1010 adults nationwide. It is an open-ended question, which asks people to volunteer in their own words the most important issues for government to address. One-third of respondents (35%) mention something having to do with the economy, which is up from 28% in September, but pretty consistent with the level of economic mentions in August. However, note the dramatic increase since August in the number citing "the war" and "Iraq/Saddam Hussein." While separated into different categories by Harris, for our purposes, "war," "terrorism," and "Iraq" comprises one cluster of concerns. The results of this question strongly suggest the current public agenda is focused on war. Importantly, this does not mean people are unconcerned with other issues; it simply means that war/terrorism/Iraq are top-of-mind, followed by the economy.
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Associated Press poll conducted by ICR. Sept. 6-10, 2002. N=758 registered voters nationwide. "Which one of the following issues do you think is the most important in the elections for Congress?"
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Our topic of interest, taxes, does not appear in the responses to the Harris Poll question. This poll may only show the top responses, with taxes appearing lower on the list, or it may combine tax responses into the economic category. So we need to find a question mentioning taxes specifically to understand its priority compared to other issues. The Associated Press poll provided survey respondents with seven specific categories of issues. Here, the economy is at the top of concerns (23%), while the issue we are reviewing, taxes, rates only 8%. So we see taxes are not at the top of the public agenda. However, that does not mean the public is unconcerned. Let's investigate further.
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Investor's Business Daily/Christian Science Monitor poll. Aug. 5-9, 2002. N=903 adults nationwide. "Some members of Congress have suggested that taxes be increased or that tax cuts that are scheduled to take effect be partly revoked to help the economy. Do you agree or disagree with this approach?"
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Under "Issues Facing the Nation" on pollingreport.com, there is a category, "Budget and Taxes" which lists several questions covering a range of perspectives on taxes, such as support for tax cuts, assessment of one's personal taxes, priorities for spending a surplus, and views of government waste, among others.
One question suggests that a majority does not want taxes to be increased, or the tax cuts to be revoked. However a sizable minority agrees with revoking the tax cuts. This mixed response suggests there are opportunities for either side to shift public opinion on this issue.
But why is response so mixed? What are people thinking about? The phrase "to help the economy" is an important one. As we can see in the table below, when tax cuts are framed in terms of the economy, people support them. However, tax cuts are not their favorite economic stimulus. They prefer increasing the minimum wage or improving infrastructure.
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Investor's Business Daily/Christian Science Monitor. Nov. 7-11, 2001. N=920 adults nationwide. "Now I am going to read different actions the government could take to stimulate the economy. As I read each one please tell me if you favor or oppose the action."
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But do people believe that lower taxes stimulate the economy? A question by CBS News in April 2001 finds that there is no public consensus that tax cuts help the economy. Thirty-eight percent say a tax cut would help, but 20% believe it would hurt and 37% think it wouldn't make any difference. There is a distinct philosophical divide between Republicans and Democrats on this measure. (An ABC News/Washington Post poll taken 3 months later shows even higher percentages reporting that a tax cut would make no difference for the economy.)
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CBS News Poll. April 4-5, 2001. N=660 adults nationwide.
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The same poll demonstrates that the public, particularly Democrats and Independents, would rather have any budget surplus dedicated to preserving programs like Medicare and Social Security, rather than income tax cuts. They are divided (44% to 44%) on whether or not it is possible to both fund important programs and provide a tax cut, with Republicans certain it is possible, and Democrats certain it is not possible.
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CBS News Poll. April 4-5, 2001. N=660 adults nationwide.
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This poll reports that if George Bush's tax cut plan were adopted, a majority of respondents in April 2001 (58%) felt it would make no significant difference in the amount of money they kept after taxes, and a majority (55%) felt it would most benefit the rich. Even so, the public supported a $1.6 trillion dollar tax cut for the country by a 51-37% margin. Why?
First of all, 51% support is not a wildly enthusiastic endorsement, and people had other higher priorities for the surplus, such as protecting important programs like Medicare and Social Security. Balancing the budget is also important to Americans. According to an Associated Press poll in March 2002, people would rather vote for a congressional candidate who would balance the budget (72%) than vote for a candidate who would cut taxes (23%). At the same time, people think they pay too much in taxes and the government wastes their money. According to a Gallup trend, taken as recently as April 2001, 65% of Americans believe they pay too much in taxes, a result that has been fairly consistent since the late 1990s. Furthermore, a poll by ABC News in April 2002 finds that on average, people believe government wastes 47 cents of every tax dollar, again a response that has been fairly consistent for several years.
So what can we learn from just these few findings listed on pollingreport.com? First, most people are not clamoring for lower taxes. They are not so sure that lower taxes help the economy, and they do not believe tax cuts will benefit people like themselves. They would rather see more resources given to other priorities such as balancing the budget, Social Security and Medicare. At the same time, people believe they are paying too much in taxes, and government is wasting precious tax dollars. All of these views divide sharply by party lines, quickly turning any tax dialogue into two opposing sides. So when advocates are in the middle of a conversation on taxes, perhaps they should frame their messages around universally important policy priorities such as realistic, responsible management of government budgets. Remember that candidate Bush carefully explained his proposal for tax cuts in just this Level One fashion: "trust the people" was his mantra. Second, advocates might do well to avoid cues that will trigger a partisan response -- for more on this, see EZine. "Taking Tone Seriously as a Frame Cue".
This brief review is intended to demonstrate how to gather and analyze opinion data that is readily available to the public. This is not easy - indeed, it is very, very hard. However, by reviewing a wide array of polls with an appreciation for the complexity of public opinion, you will be better prepared to create communications that the public will hear, understand, and accept.
